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CDSBench
Mastermind · CDSBench’s own system

When credit breaks, Mastermind helps you understand what matters for the CDS.

Something happened to a company or sovereign. What does it mean for the CDS, which instruments matter, what likely qualifies, why, what historical cases are relevant, and what might I be missing?

Upload the documents. Mastermind structures the event and the instrument, runs the objective checks, analyzes deliverability, retrieves related historical cases, verifies the supporting evidence, challenges its own conclusion and shows what remains unresolved.

Overall
91.2
Claude 91.2
Evidence support
92%
Claude 92%
Hallucinated evidence
6.1%
Claude 6.1%

Mastermind V0 (raw baseline) on CDSBench v0.1: 296 independently verified questions from 296 verified labels; 61 holdout questions never used for tuning. Same record, same scoring as every ranked model. Methodology →

How Mastermind works

Frontier models are powerful. High-stakes CDS work still needs the structure they do not bring by default.

Raw frontier model
  1. 1
    Documents
    The full record, pasted into a chat.
  2. 2
    Prompt
    Whatever the user remembers to ask.
  3. 3
    LLM
    One model reads everything and writes an answer.
  4. 4
    Answer
    Prose. Confidence is self-reported. An overlooked clause is invisible from the outside.

Fast, fluent and often right. The conclusion and its supporting facts are produced in the same breath, so nothing checks them.

Mastermind
  1. 1
    Documents
    Sections get stable IDs so every later claim can point at one.
  2. 2
    Structured CDS facts
    Currency, maturity, seniority, form, contingency and transfer terms are extracted per instrument, with the section each came from.
  3. 3
    Deterministic checks
    Code, not a model, tests the objective characteristics. Each check reports pass, fail or review and cites its evidence.
  4. 4
    Related historical cases
    Structurally similar CDSBench cases are retrieved with their verified outcome, similarities and material differences — never copied.
  5. 5
    Specialist analysis
    A frontier reasoning model — one of the models CDSBench ranks — writes the proposed conclusion against the facts, checks and record.
  6. 6
    Independent skeptic
    A second pass looks for the strongest evidence-based reason the proposal is wrong.
  7. 7
    Claim-level verification
    Every material claim is checked against the cited sections. Unsupported claims are dropped; non-existent citations are flagged.
  8. 8
    Contradiction and missing-information checks
    Conflicting documents send the case to review unless a later one governs; absent facts are named, not guessed.
  9. 9
    Final assessment
    Likely eligible, likely ineligible, review required, or insufficient information — with the evidence, the counterargument and what is missing.

Mastermind tries to prove itself wrong before you see the result. The model is one component; it can be replaced as CDSBench measures newer versions. How each stage is measured →

Mastermind is not a new model and not a competitor to the models CDSBench ranks. It calls one of them for analysis and for skepticism, and wraps it in code that extracts the facts, runs the deterministic checks, retrieves related cases and verifies every claim against the record. It is scored by the same rules as everyone else, and its misses are published on the same terms.

Why isn’t this just a wrapper?

Seven layers, one of which is the model.

Frontier models
Commodity input. Mastermind runs on them and can change which one it uses.
CDSBench dataset
Historical credit events, instruments, documents, verified questions and outcomes, frozen in versions.
Rules
Deterministic CDS logic in code: maturity, currency, seniority, form, contingency, transferability, entity match.
Precedents
Structured similarity over the historical corpus, with similarities and material differences stated.
Verification
Claim-by-claim testing against the cited sections; unsupported claims are dropped or send the result to review.
Evaluation history
Every model version's answers, failures and fixes, classified and kept; regressions become tests.
Workflow
One structured, repeatable output built for CDS work, not a chat transcript.

The model is one component. The system around it is the product.

Where the leader failed

Claude missed 28 of 296 verified questions. Here is what Mastermind did on each.

Same record, same question, same scoring. Every row opens the Case Replay where you can read the clause and both answers. Where Mastermind abstained, the record did not support a conclusion, and abstaining is scored as correct only when the verified label agrees.

#QuestionCategoryClaudeMastermind
16Halvard Steel AG 2025 · EUR 2058 NotesIs the instrument transferable without the consent of the Issuer?TransferabilityReviewReview
36Orinoco Retail Holdings plc 2027 · JPY 2035 NotesIs the instrument transferable without the consent of the Issuer?TransferabilityReviewReview
56Brightwater Energy Corp 2024 · USD 2034 NotesReconciling all documents in the record, is the instrument transferable without …TransferabilityReviewReview
57Brightwater Energy Corp 2024 · USD 2034 NotesApplying the standard Deliverable Obligation Characteristics (Not Subordinated, …DeliverabilityReviewReview
66Republic of Sanderia 2025 · EUR 2036 NotesIs the instrument transferable without the consent of the Issuer?TransferabilityReviewReview
70Republic of Sanderia 2025 · EUR 2036 NotesDoes the record contain enough evidence to reach a reliable deliverability concl…UncertaintyYesYes
72Meridian Telecom S.A. 2026 · GBP 2038 NotesIs there enough evidence in the record to establish the currency of denomination…UncertaintyYesYes
79Meridian Telecom S.A. 2026 · GBP 2038 NotesDoes the record contain enough evidence to reach a reliable deliverability concl…UncertaintyYesYes
95Northgate Shipping Ltd 2028 · CHF 2042 NotesIs the instrument transferable without the consent of the Issuer?TransferabilityReviewReview
96Northgate Shipping Ltd 2028 · CHF 2042 NotesApplying the standard Deliverable Obligation Characteristics (Not Subordinated, …DeliverabilityReviewReview
109Republic of Marovia 2024 · USD 2039 NotesDoes the record contain enough evidence to reach a reliable deliverability concl…UncertaintyYesYes
116Calder Chemicals N.V. 2025 · EUR 2041 NotesApplying the standard Deliverable Obligation Characteristics (Not Subordinated, …DeliverabilityReviewReview
134Solvane Airlines S.A. 2027 · JPY 2045 NotesIs the instrument transferable without the consent of the Issuer?TransferabilityReviewReview
138Solvane Airlines S.A. 2027 · JPY 2045 NotesDoes the record contain enough evidence to reach a reliable deliverability concl…UncertaintyYesYes
184Federal Republic of Aurelia 2027 (B) · JPY 2050 NotesIs the instrument transferable without the consent of the Issuer?TransferabilityReviewReview
194Brightwater Energy Corp 2028 (B) · CHF 2052 NotesReconciling all documents in the record, is the instrument transferable without …TransferabilityReviewReview
195Brightwater Energy Corp 2028 (B) · CHF 2052 NotesApplying the standard Deliverable Obligation Characteristics (Not Subordinated, …DeliverabilityReviewReview
204Republic of Sanderia 2024 (B) · USD 2029 NotesIs the instrument transferable without the consent of the Issuer?TransferabilityReviewReview
208Republic of Sanderia 2024 (B) · USD 2029 NotesDoes the record contain enough evidence to reach a reliable deliverability concl…UncertaintyYesYes
210Meridian Telecom S.A. 2025 (B) · EUR 2031 NotesIs there enough evidence in the record to establish the currency of denomination…UncertaintyYesYes
217Meridian Telecom S.A. 2025 (B) · EUR 2031 NotesDoes the record contain enough evidence to reach a reliable deliverability concl…UncertaintyYesYes
223United Provinces of Kestrel 2026 (B) · GBP 2033 NotesIs the instrument transferable without the consent of the Issuer?TransferabilityReviewReview
233Northgate Shipping Ltd 2027 (B) · JPY 2035 NotesIs the instrument transferable without the consent of the Issuer?TransferabilityReviewReview
247Republic of Marovia 2028 (B) · CHF 2037 NotesDoes the record contain enough evidence to reach a reliable deliverability concl…UncertaintyYesYes
253Calder Chemicals N.V. 2024 (B) · USD 2034 NotesIs the instrument transferable without the consent of the Issuer?TransferabilityReviewReview
263Commonwealth of Tessaly 2025 (B) · EUR 2036 NotesIs the instrument transferable without the consent of the Issuer?TransferabilityReviewReview
276Solvane Airlines S.A. 2026 (B) · GBP 2038 NotesDoes the record contain enough evidence to reach a reliable deliverability concl…UncertaintyYesYes
283Republic of Norland 2027 (C) · JPY 2040 NotesApplying the standard Deliverable Obligation Characteristics (Not Subordinated, …DeliverabilityReviewReview

Mastermind is valuable even where the raw model reaches the same answer: every conclusion arrives with the rule-level checks, the verified evidence and the counterargument, in the same structure on every case.

Where Mastermind fails

We publish Mastermind’s failures too.

A system that only showed its wins would not be worth trusting with a live case. Every Mastermind version is benchmarked before promotion; regressions stay listed on the model page.

Weakest categories
CategoryMastermindClaude
Transferability57%57%
Uncertainty69%69%
Deliverability83%83%
Currency100%100%
Mastermind misses

20 verified questions wrong or weakly supported

On your case, Mastermind gives you

Everything you receive, and the evidence behind it.

  1. 1Likely eligibleReview
    Overall assessment
    Likely eligible, likely ineligible, review required, or insufficient information — never a false certainty.
  2. 2
    Test matrix
    Every objective check — currency, maturity, seniority, form, contingency, transferability, entity — with pass, fail or unresolved and the clause it used.
  3. 3
    Exact evidence
    Each material claim links to the section it rests on. Click through to the clause in your own document.
  4. 4
    Related historical cases
    Structurally similar CDSBench cases with their verified outcome, what is similar, and what is materially different.
  5. 5
    Strongest counterargument
    What could make this conclusion wrong, found by an independent pass that looks for overlooked evidence and unsupported assumptions.
  6. 6
    Missing information
    Which document or fact would change the confidence, so you know what to obtain next.
  7. 7
    What Mastermind added
    The checks, verifications and challenges the run actually performed, beyond the underlying model.
For trading
Get to the issue faster.
  • Which instruments appear deliverable, which do not, and which need review.
  • The one contractual issue that decides it, with the clause.
For credit research
Structure the documents, facts and historical context.
  • Normalized instrument terms with the section each came from.
  • Related historical cases and their material differences.
For legal and restructuring
Verify claims against exact source evidence.
  • Every test and claim linked to the governing wording.
  • The strongest counterargument and the documents still missing.
When the evidence does not justify a conclusion, Mastermind says so
Review required
Reason: transferability cannot be established from the available documents.
Missing: fiscal agency agreement.
Illustration of the result format. Every private result uses the same vocabulary: likely eligible, likely ineligible, review required, insufficient information.
Same rules, every version

Promoted only when it beats its predecessor under measured gates.

VersionAddsOverallAccuracyEvidenceHalluc.
Mastermind V0 (raw baseline)Standardized prompt → frontier model → structured answer.91.291%92%6.1%promoted · in production
Mastermind V1 (specialist structure)CDS case schema, specialist prompt, strict JSON, evidence IDs, insufficient-information state.91.491%93%0.0%
Mastermind V2 (deterministic rules)Objective logic moved into code: maturity, currency, seniority, identifiers, required fields.92.594%97%0.0%
Mastermind V3 (skeptic + verification)Primary analyst → skeptic → claim-level evidence verification → contradiction check → revised result.99.2100%96%0.0%
Mastermind V4 (precedents)Analogous historical cases retrieved from the CDSBench corpus with similarities/differences; section-level evidence retrieval for large records.99.2100%96%0.0%
Mastermind V5 (full orchestration)Adds multi-model consensus on contested conclusions, alternative hypotheses, and system confidence computed from pipeline signals with observed calibration.99.2100%96%0.0%

Benchmark v0.1. Stages listed for versions above the promoted one are built and measured but not yet promoted; private analyses run the promoted version. As frontier models change, CDSBench reruns them and Mastermind’s analyst model can change with a new version — the customer never has to pick a vendor. Full run history, including every regression, on the model page.

Why professionals pay

A repeatable credit-event analysis process, not access to a model.

Speed
Compress the fragmented document-and-research work around one instrument into one structured analysis.
Coverage
Every objective characteristic is tested, every time — nothing depends on remembering to ask.
Historical memory
Compare the situation with structured historical CDS cases instead of starting from a blank chat.
Verification
Every material conclusion is tied back to the clause it rests on. You never have to trust the answer blindly.
Second opinion
Mastermind actively looks for reasons its own conclusion may be wrong before you see it.
Consistency
The same structure on every case, so a desk or deal team can compare analyses rather than prompts.
Uncertainty
What cannot yet be established is stated, with the document that would resolve it.
CDSBench · free, public
Proves which AI approaches actually work on historical CDS problems.

Leaderboard, every Case Replay, model pages and failures, research reports, follows and alerts, data downloads and the public API.

Mastermind · private
Uses what CDSBench has learned to analyze your own situation.

Your documents and instruments: event, deliverability, tests, evidence, precedents, the skeptic, missing information and exports. The first analyses are free; paid plans open with real historical cases and live provider runs.

Straight answers

The questions a buyer asks before uploading anything.

I can just use Claude or GPT.
Yes. CDSBench shows you how Claude performs directly, question by question. Mastermind is for when you want the model wrapped in CDS-specific checks, historical precedent, evidence verification, adversarial review and structured uncertainty — and you want that measured on the same benchmark.
Is this legal advice or a determination?
No. Mastermind is decision-support software. It structures the record, runs objective checks, cites the clauses, retrieves precedent and states what is unresolved. It does not make Credit Event determinations, and its deterministic rules are provisional simplifications of the standard characteristics, shown as such.
Why should I trust your score?
Outcomes are verified against source documents by independent checks, questions are frozen in versioned benchmarks, every model receives the same record, holdout cases are never used for tuning, every failure has a public page, and errors are corrected in a public log. Methodology →
What if the models improve?
Good — CDSBench reruns them. Mastermind is built around replaceable frontier models. The benchmark tells us where generic capability has caught up and where the specialist infrastructure still adds value, version by version.
What happens to my documents?
They are parsed on the CDSBench server, stored against the email you give, never listed publicly, never added to the public benchmark and never used for precedent retrieval. CDSBench trains no models. Exactly what the current code does →
Use the same reasoning system on your case

Upload the record for one instrument. Every stage appears as it finishes; the result shows the assessment, the tests, the evidence, the related cases, the counterargument, what is missing, and what Mastermind added beyond the model.

correct · abstained · incorrect. Verified outcome tone: Eligible Ineligible