Benchmark category · v0.1 · 32 verified questions
Uncertainty
Recognising when the record does not settle the question, and abstaining rather than guessing.
Ranking
Accuracy on uncertainty questions
| # | Model | Accuracy | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claude Sonnet 5 | 69% | 22/32 | |
| 2 | GPT -5 | 69% | 22/32 | |
| 3 | Gemini 2.5 Pro | 69% | 22/32 | |
| Reference · CDSBench’s own system · not ranked | ||||
| — | Mastermind | 69% | 22/32 | |
Common failures
How models go wrong here
| Wrong final answer | 40 |
| Unsupported claim | 40 |
| Overconfident | 20 |
Across every model’s latest official run. Failure taxonomy →
Hardest questions
Most models wrong
- #70 Republic of Sanderia 2025 · EUR 2036 NotesDoes the record contain enough evidence to reach a reliable deliverability conclusion with…4/4
- #72 Meridian Telecom S.A. 2026 · GBP 2038 NotesIs there enough evidence in the record to establish the currency of denomination of the in…4/4
- #79 Meridian Telecom S.A. 2026 · GBP 2038 NotesDoes the record contain enough evidence to reach a reliable deliverability conclusion with…4/4
- #109 Republic of Marovia 2024 · USD 2039 NotesDoes the record contain enough evidence to reach a reliable deliverability conclusion with…4/4
- #138 Solvane Airlines S.A. 2027 · JPY 2045 NotesDoes the record contain enough evidence to reach a reliable deliverability conclusion with…4/4
- #208 Republic of Sanderia 2024 (B) · USD 2029 NotesDoes the record contain enough evidence to reach a reliable deliverability conclusion with…4/4
- #210 Meridian Telecom S.A. 2025 (B) · EUR 2031 NotesIs there enough evidence in the record to establish the currency of denomination of the in…4/4
- #217 Meridian Telecom S.A. 2025 (B) · EUR 2031 NotesDoes the record contain enough evidence to reach a reliable deliverability conclusion with…4/4
Latest
Most recently published questions
- #296 Halvard Steel AG 2028 (C)2026-09-15
- #286 Republic of Norland 2027 (C)2026-09-15
- #276 Solvane Airlines S.A. 2026 (B)2026-09-15
- #267 Commonwealth of Tessaly 2025 (B)2026-09-15
- #257 Calder Chemicals N.V. 2024 (B)2026-09-15
Cases
30 cases with uncertainty questions
- Federal Republic of Aurelia 2028 Federal Republic of Aurelia · 2028
- Northgate Shipping Ltd 2028 Northgate Shipping Ltd · 2028
- Republic of Norland 2028 (B) Republic of Norland · 2028
- Brightwater Energy Corp 2028 (B) Brightwater Energy Corp · 2028
- Republic of Marovia 2028 (B) Republic of Marovia · 2028
- Halvard Steel AG 2028 (C) Halvard Steel AG · 2028
- Republic of Norland 2027 (C) Republic of Norland · 2027
- Orinoco Retail Holdings plc 2027 Orinoco Retail Holdings plc · 2027
- United Provinces of Kestrel 2027 United Provinces of Kestrel · 2027
- Solvane Airlines S.A. 2027 Solvane Airlines S.A. · 2027
- Federal Republic of Aurelia 2027 (B) Federal Republic of Aurelia · 2027
- Northgate Shipping Ltd 2027 (B) Northgate Shipping Ltd · 2027
and 18 more in the case explorer.
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